Accurate flood prediction is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation. Hydrological data exhibit highly nonlinear temporal patterns and encompass complex spatial relationships between rainfall and flow. Existing flood prediction models struggle to capture these intricate temporal features and spatial dependencies. This paper presents an adaptive periodic and spatial self-attention method based on LSTM (APS-LSTM) to address these challenges. The APS-LSTM learns temporal features from a multi-periodicity perspective and captures diverse spatial dependencies from different period divisions. The APS-LSTM consists of three main stages, (i) Multi-Period Division, that utilizes Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to divide various periodic patterns; (ii) Spatio-Temporal Information Extraction, that performs periodic and spatial self-attention focusing on intra- and inter-periodic temporal patterns and spatial dependencies; (iii) Adaptive Aggregation, that relies on amplitude strength to aggregate the computational results from each periodic division. The abundant experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of APS-LSTM. The code is available: https://github.com/oopcmd/APS-LSTM.

This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to improve flood forecasting we focus on daily flood events along Germany's Wupper River in 2023 our approach combines classical machine learning techniques with QML techniques this hybrid model leverages quantum properties like superposition and entanglement to achieve better accuracy and efficiency classical and QML models are compared based on training time accuracy and scalability results show that QML models offer competitive training times and improved prediction accuracy this research signifies a step towards utilizing quantum technologies for climate change adaptation we emphasize collaboration and continuous innovation to implement this model in real-world flood management ultimately enhancing global resilience against floods

Ashland City, Tennessee, located within the Lower Cumberland Sycamore watershed, is highly susceptible to flooding due to increased upstream water levels. This study aimed to develop a robust flood prediction model for the city, utilizing water level data at 30-minute intervals from ten USGS gauge stations within the watershed. A Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network, known for its ability to effectively process sequential time-series data, was used. The model was trained, validated, and tested using a year-long dataset (January 2021-January 2022), and its performance was evaluated using statistical metrics including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Coefficient of Determination (R^2). The results demonstrated a high level of accuracy, with the model explaining 98.2% of the variance in the data. Despite minor discrepancies between predicted and observed values, the GRU model proved to be an effective tool for flood prediction in Ashland City, with potential applications for enhancing disaster preparedness and response efforts in Ashland City.

Deep learning models have become increasingly popular for flood prediction due to their superior accuracy and efficiency compared to traditional methods. However, current machine learning methods often rely on separate spatial or temporal feature analysis and have limitations on the types, number, and dimensions of input data. This study presented a CNN-RNN hybrid feature fusion modelling approach for urban flood prediction, which integrated the strengths of CNNs in processing spatial features and RNNs in analyzing different dimensions of time sequences. This approach allowed for both static and dynamic flood predictions. Bayesian optimization was applied to identify the seven most influential flood-driven factors and determine the best combination strategy. By combining four CNNs (FCN, UNet, SegNet, DeepLabv3+) and three RNNs (LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU), the optimal hybrid model was identified as LSTM-DeepLabv3+. This model achieved the highest prediction accuracy (MAE, RMSE, NSE, and KGE were 0.007, 0.025, 0.973 and 0.755, respectively) under various rainfall input conditions. Additionally, the processing speed was significantly improved, with an inference time of 1.158s (approximately 1/125 of the traditional computation time) compared to the physically-based models.

Flooding is one of the most destructive and costly natural disasters, and climate changes would further increase risks globally. This work presents a novel multimodal machine learning approach for multi-year global flood risk prediction, combining geographical information and historical natural disaster dataset. Our multimodal framework employs state-of-the-art processing techniques to extract embeddings from each data modality, including text-based geographical data and tabular-based time-series data. Experiments demonstrate that a multimodal approach, that is combining text and statistical data, outperforms a single-modality approach. Our most advanced architecture, employing embeddings extracted using transfer learning upon DistilBert model, achieves 75\%-77\% ROCAUC score in predicting the next 1-5 year flooding event in historically flooded locations. This work demonstrates the potentials of using machine learning for long-term planning in natural disaster management.

Reliable prediction of river floods in the first 72 hours can reduce harm because emergency agencies have sufficient time to prepare and deploy for help at the scene. Such river flood prediction models already exist and perform relatively well in most high-income countries. But, due to the limited availability of data, these models are lacking in low-income countries. Here, we offer the first global river flood prediction framework based on the newly published Caravan dataset. Our framework aims to serve as a benchmark for future global river flood prediction research. To support generalizability claims we include custom data evaluation splits. Further, we propose and evaluate a novel two-path LSTM architecture (2P-LSTM) against three baseline models. Finally, we evaluate the generated models on different locations in Africa and Asia that were not part of the Caravan dataset.

The objective of this study is to create and test a hybrid deep learning model, FastGRNN-FCN (Fast, Accurate, Stable and Tiny Gated Recurrent Neural Network-Fully Convolutional Network), for urban flood prediction and situation awareness using channel network sensors data. The study used Harris County, Texas as the testbed, and obtained channel sensor data from three historical flood events (e.g., 2016 Tax Day Flood, 2016 Memorial Day flood, and 2017 Hurricane Harvey Flood) for training and validating the hybrid deep learning model. The flood data are divided into a multivariate time series and used as the model input. Each input comprises nine variables, including information of the studied channel sensor and its predecessor and successor sensors in the channel network. Precision-recall curve and F-measure are used to identify the optimal set of model parameters. The optimal model with a weight of 1 and a critical threshold of 0.59 are obtained through one hundred iterations based on examining different weights and thresholds. The test accuracy and F-measure eventually reach 97.8% and 0.792, respectively. The model is then tested in predicting the 2019 Imelda flood in Houston and the results show an excellent match with the empirical flood. The results show that the model enables accurate prediction of the spatial-temporal flood propagation and recession and provides emergency response officials with a predictive flood warning tool for prioritizing the flood response and resource allocation strategies.

Imagine you are considering buying a long-term place with a view of mountains or ocean. For due diligence, your partner asks about flood risk in the area. FEMA maps show the place is outside the 100-year flood zones (1% annual chance). However, you have heard that climate change is making extreme events more extreme and some places have seen multiple 100-year floods within a few years. Next, you browse information about climate change and its impact.

Flooding is a destructive and dangerous hazard and climate change appears to be increasing the frequency of catastrophic flooding events around the world. Physics-based flood models are costly to calibrate and are rarely generalizable across different river basins, as model outputs are sensitive to site-specific parameters and human-regulated infrastructure. In contrast, statistical models implicitly account for such factors through the data on which they are trained. Such models trained primarily from remotely-sensed Earth observation data could reduce the need for extensive in-situ measurements. In this work, we develop generalizable, multi-basin models of river flooding susceptibility using geographically-distributed data from the USGS stream gauge network.

Flooding is a destructive and dangerous hazard and climate change appears to be increasing the frequency of catastrophic flooding events around the world. Physics-based flood models are costly to calibrate and are rarely generalizable across different river basins, as model outputs are sensitive to site-specific parameters and human-regulated infrastructure. In contrast, statistical models implicitly account for such factors through the data on which they are trained. Such models trained primarily from remotely-sensed Earth observation data could reduce the need for extensive in-situ measurements. In this work, we develop generalizable, multi-basin models of river flooding susceptibility using geographically-distributed data from the USGS stream gauge network. Machine learning models are trained in a supervised framework to predict two measures of flood susceptibility from a mix of river basin attributes, impervious surface cover information derived from satellite imagery, and historical records of rainfall and stream height. We report prediction performance of multiple models using precision-recall curves, and compare with performance of naive baselines. This work on multi-basin flood prediction represents a step in the direction of making flood prediction accessible to all at-risk communities.